Variations on the Sun
The Sun is a highly variable star that changes on time scales of hours to hundreds of years. The interplanetary magnetic field direction and solar wind speed and density are driven by the activity on the Sun. They can change drastically and influence the geomagnetic activity. As geomagnetic activity increases, the southern edge of the aurora borealis usually moves to lower latitudes. Similarly, solar mass ejections coincide with larger auroral ovals. If the interplanetary magnetic field is in the opposite direction of the Earth's magnetic field, there can be increased energy flow into the magnetosphere and thus, increased energy flow into the polar regions of the Earth. This will result in an intensification of the auroral displays.
Disturbances in the Earth's magnetosphere are called geomagnetic storms. These, in turn, can produce sudden changes in the brightness and motion of the aurora called auroral substorms. The magnetic fluctuations of these storms and substorms may cause surges in electric power lines and occasional equipment failures in the power grid, resulting in widespread power outages. They can also impact the performance of satellite-to-ground radio communications and navigation systems. Magnetospheric storms can last several hours or even days, and auroral substorms can occur several times a day. Each substorm can deliver several hundred terajoules of energy as much as the electrical energy consumed in the entire United States over 10 hours.
Measuring the geomagnetic field
The geomagnetic field can be measured with instruments called magnetometers. Data from many magnetometers allow observers to track the current state of the geomagnetic conditions. The magnetometer data are often given in the form of 3-hourly indices that give a quantitative measure of the level of geomagnetic activity. One such index is called the K-index. The K-index value ranges from 0 to 9 and is directly related to the amount of fluctuation (relative to a quiet day) in the geomagnetic field over a 3-hour interval. The higher the K-index value, the more likely it is that an aurora will occur. The K-index is also, necessarily, tied to a specific observatory location. For locations where there are no observatories, one can only estimate what the local K-index would be by looking at data from the nearest observatory. A global average of auroral activity is converted to the Kp index.
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